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Explain the Kalman filter and state-space models. What are the predict and update steps actually doing?

The Kalman filter is optimal Bayesian tracking under linear-Gaussian assumptions, and it amounts to two steps repeated forever. The signal is explaining what the gain trades off and when the assumptions break. Here is the answer.

Updated Sep 2026 · Grounded in real GenAI, LLM, and AI/ML engineering interview loops and written to a senior-engineer editorial bar.

The Kalman filter is optimal Bayesian tracking under linear-Gaussian assumptions, and it amounts to two steps repeated forever. The signal is explaining what the gain trades off and when the assumptions break. Here is the answer.

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