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📊 Evaluation & ML Foundations
Core

Calibration and Uncertainty

A model is calibrated when its confidence lines up with reality: among the predictions it makes at 0.8, roughly 80% turn out correct. Modern neural nets (and LLMs) tend to be overconfident, so raw scores are not trustworthy probabilities. You correct it post-hoc with temperature scaling, Platt scaling, or isotonic regression on a held-out set, and you measure it with reliability diagrams and Expected Calibration Error. AI, ML, and GenAI engineer interviews probe it because any decision made on a probability (thresholds, expected value, abstention) is only as good as the calibration.

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